Unbeaten since the arrival of new head coach Lage, Benfica should be relatively confident of providing a serious test for Atletico Madrid on Wednesday night.
Los Colchoneros can extend their unbeaten run to 10 matches with a positive result in Lisbon, and we reckon that Simeone's troops will manage that particular feat with a share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
-0.34) 
0.67) 
