SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
49.47% ( -0.34) | 24% ( -0.34) | 26.52% ( 0.67) |
| Both teams to score 56.46% ( 1.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.73% ( 1.99) | 45.27% ( -2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.39% ( 1.88) | 67.61% ( -1.88) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.62% ( 0.64) | 18.38% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.49% ( 1.07) | 49.51% ( -1.07) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.18% ( 1.58) | 30.82% ( -1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.9% ( 1.83) | 67.1% ( -1.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 9.6% ( -0.64) 2-1 @ 9.57% 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.36)3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.44% Total : 49.48% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.5)2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.24)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24% | 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.18)0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.94% Total : 26.52% |
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