SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 58.4%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 18.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.89%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Benfica |
18.6% ( -0.28) | 23% ( -0.02) | 58.4% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.34% ( -0.3) | 49.66% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.32% ( -0.27) | 71.68% ( 0.27) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.28% ( -0.49) | 40.72% ( 0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.7% ( -0.44) | 77.3% ( 0.44) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.29% | 16.71% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.4% ( -0) | 46.6% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.04% Total : 18.6% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.87% Total : 23% | 0-1 @ 12.17% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 10.89% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 9.79% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.5% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 5.84% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.91% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.61% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 58.4% |
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