SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Port Vale win it was 1-2 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bolton Wanderers in this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Port Vale |
73.65% ( 0.04) | 16% ( -0.02) | 10.35% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.29% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.05% ( 0.04) | 35.95% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.96% ( 0.04) | 58.04% ( -0.04) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( 0.02) | 8.38% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 70.84% ( 0.04) | 29.16% ( -0.04) |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.99% ( -0) | 44.01% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 19.87% ( -0) | 80.13% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Port Vale |
| 2-0 @ 11.33% 3-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0)1-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.69% ( 0)4-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.36% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.96% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0)6-1 @ 0.98% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 73.64% | 1-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.98% Total : 16% | 1-2 @ 3.08% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.24% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.96% Total : 10.35% |
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