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League One | Gameweek 45
Apr 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium
PV

Bolton
2 - 0
Port Vale

Collins (72'), Jerome (90+3')
Maghoma (70'), Charles (70'), Toal (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Garrity (70')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bolton 2-2 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-0 Port Vale

Bolton head into this game as the clear favourites, boasting more than double Port Vale's points tally this season. The hosts have not lost in this fixture since a 6-3 defeat in December 2020, and we expect them to continue that unbeaten run with a victory here, in a must-win match for both sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 10.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Port Vale win it was 1-2 (3.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Bolton Wanderers in this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
73.65% (0.036000000000001 0.04) 16% (-0.017999999999999 -0.02) 10.35% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.29% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.05% (0.039000000000001 0.04)35.95% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.96% (0.044000000000004 0.04)58.04% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.62% (0.018000000000001 0.02)8.38% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.84% (0.043999999999997 0.04)29.16% (-0.041999999999998 -0.04)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.99% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)44.01% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.87% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)80.13% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 73.64%
    Port Vale 10.35%
    Draw 16%
Bolton WanderersDrawPort Vale
2-0 @ 11.33%
3-0 @ 9.37% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-0 @ 9.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.69% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 5.81% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 4.77% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.16% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-0 @ 2.88% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 2.36% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.96% (0.002 0)
6-0 @ 1.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
6-1 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
5-2 @ 0.97% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 73.64%
1-1 @ 7.51% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
2-2 @ 3.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.69% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.98%
Total : 16%
1-2 @ 3.08% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 3.03% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.05%
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 10.35%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Bolton 2-2 Shrewsbury
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 1-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-2 Bolton
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 5-2 Reading
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Stevenage 0-0 Bolton
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Bolton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 1-2 Wycombe
Tuesday, April 16 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 2-4 Exeter
Saturday, April 13 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Peterborough 3-0 Port Vale
Wednesday, April 10 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Wigan 0-0 Port Vale
Saturday, April 6 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Northampton 2-0 Port Vale
Monday, April 1 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Port Vale 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Friday, March 29 at 3pm in League One


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