Fogo have more than enough attacking pedigree to trouble the shaky Flu backline, while they are more than comfortable playing in tight games on their home ground.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 48.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 25.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Botafogo in this match.
-0.22) 
0.07) 
