Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 58.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 16.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.86%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Botafogo win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
0.48) 
-0.31) 
