Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.1%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Botafogo in this match.
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