SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 50.84%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 23.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (8.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Juventude |
50.84% ( -0.83) | 26.06% ( 0.36) | 23.09% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 46.78% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.65% ( -0.88) | 56.35% ( 0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.62% ( -0.72) | 77.37% ( 0.72) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.76% ( -0.73) | 22.23% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.33% ( -1.1) | 55.66% ( 1.1) |
| Juventude Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.16% ( -0.04) | 39.84% ( 0.04) |
