Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 67.36%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 13.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a Juventude win it was 1-2 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
-0.27) 
0.02) 
