While both these sides have been bang-average this season, Bragantino have maintained an impressive home record and are on a three-match winning streak at this venue. This should be a close contest but we fancy the hosts to edge the result by the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 45.08%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 28.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bragantino in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Bragantino.
0.32) 
-0.52) 
