SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Serbia | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 5 | Lithuania | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 56.35%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 19.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Lithuania |
56.35% ( -2.14) | 24.14% ( 0.5) | 19.51% ( 1.64) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 1.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.1% ( 0.25) | 52.9% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.49% ( 0.21) | 74.51% ( -0.21) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.37% ( -0.7) | 18.63% ( 0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.06% ( -1.19) | 49.94% ( 1.19) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.43% ( 2.05) | 41.57% ( -2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.94% ( 1.75) | 78.06% ( -1.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Lithuania |
| 1-0 @ 13.01% ( -0.42) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.62)2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.27)3-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.12% Total : 56.34% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.14% | 0-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.39)0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.29)1-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.02% Total : 19.51% |
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