SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 54.14%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.41%) and 0-1 (7.34%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Crusaders |
24.35% ( 0.05) | 21.51% ( 0.02) | 54.14% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 62.97% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.33% ( -0.05) | 35.67% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.26% ( -0.05) | 57.73% ( 0.05) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.63% ( 0.02) | 27.37% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.17% ( 0.02) | 62.83% ( -0.02) |
| Crusaders Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.7% ( -0.04) | 13.29% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.88% ( -0.08) | 40.12% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Crusaders |
| 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.75% Total : 24.35% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.51% | 1-2 @ 9.6% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.41% ( -0)0-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.46% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.98% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 4.18% ( -0)1-4 @ 3.26% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.51% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.01% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.06% Total : 54.14% |
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