SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 63.97%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
16.27% ( -0.17) | 19.75% ( 0.03) | 63.97% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 55.39% ( -0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.66% ( -0.48) | 39.34% ( 0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.32% ( -0.5) | 61.68% ( 0.5) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.69% ( -0.5) | 37.31% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.9% ( -0.5) | 74.09% ( 0.5) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.35% ( -0.1) | 11.65% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.31% ( -0.22) | 36.69% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 2-1 @ 4.54% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.24% Total : 16.27% | 1-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.17% Total : 19.75% | 0-2 @ 10.04% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( 0.01)0-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 7.2% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 7.1% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 3.87% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.82% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.66% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.02% Total : 63.97% |
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