SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.36%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
50.88% ( -0.69) | 22.23% ( 0.26) | 26.89% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 63.04% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.25% ( -0.91) | 36.74% ( 0.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.09% ( -1) | 58.91% ( 1) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.29% ( -0.55) | 14.71% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.1% ( -1.07) | 42.9% ( 1.07) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.91% ( -0.18) | 26.09% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.85% ( -0.24) | 61.14% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.12)4-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 1.11% ( -0.07)Other @ 4.26% Total : 50.88% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.23% | 1-2 @ 6.64% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 2.97% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.3% Total : 26.89% |
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