SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 37.62% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.34%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
37.62% ( 0.59) | 23.19% ( 0.16) | 39.18% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 64.59% ( -0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.18% ( -0.8) | 36.82% ( 0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.01% ( -0.87) | 58.99% ( 0.87) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.01% ( -0.07) | 19.99% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.83% ( -0.11) | 52.17% ( 0.11) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.73% ( -0.68) | 19.27% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49% ( -1.13) | 51% ( 1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Newtown AFC |
| 2-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.17% Total : 37.62% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.19% | 1-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.62% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.9% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.41% Total : 39.18% |
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