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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 53.28%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
23.97% ( 0.22) | 22.75% ( -0.08) | 53.28% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 58.04% ( 0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.04% ( 0.57) | 41.96% ( -0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.63% ( 0.57) | 64.37% ( -0.57) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.9% ( 0.49) | 31.1% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.57% ( 0.57) | 67.43% ( -0.57) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.24% ( 0.16) | 15.76% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.13% ( 0.29) | 44.87% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 6.18% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.34% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.8% Total : 23.97% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.19)0-2 @ 8.37% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 6.02% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2.78% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.58% Total : 53.28% |
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