SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 59.27%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 20.72% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.71%) and 3-1 (7.08%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (5.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
59.27% ( -0.03) | 20% ( -0.01) | 20.72% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 63.43% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.12% ( 0.08) | 32.87% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.42% ( 0.09) | 54.58% ( -0.09) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.04% ( 0.01) | 10.95% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.82% ( 0.03) | 35.17% ( -0.04) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.23% ( 0.08) | 28.76% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.39% ( 0.1) | 64.61% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff MU | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.08% 1-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.91% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.14% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.73% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.39% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.08% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.13% Total : 59.27% | 1-1 @ 8.68% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.15% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.35% Total : 20% | 1-2 @ 5.41% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.45% 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 3.2% Total : 20.72% |
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