SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
46.5% ( -1.39) | 23.68% ( 0.38) | 29.81% ( 1.02) |
| Both teams to score 60.09% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.39% ( -1.14) | 41.61% ( 1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.99% ( -1.16) | 64.01% ( 1.16) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.87% ( -0.98) | 18.13% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.91% ( -1.7) | 49.09% ( 1.71) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.4% ( 0.11) | 26.61% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.17% ( 0.14) | 61.83% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0.23)3-0 @ 4% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 3.51% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.64% Total : 46.5% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.24)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 6.39% ( 0.34)0-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.25% Total : 29.81% |
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