SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guadeloupe | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Guatemala | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Canada | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Cuba | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Guadeloupe | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Guatemala | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Canada | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Cuba | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 78.01%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Cuba had a probability of 6.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 3-0 (11.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.05%), while for a Cuba win it was 0-1 (2.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Canada would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Canada | Draw | Cuba |
78.01% ( 0.08) | 15.06% ( 0.07) | 6.93% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 38.87% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.29% ( -0.96) | 43.71% ( 0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.9% ( -0.94) | 66.1% ( 0.94) |
| Canada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.74% ( -0.22) | 9.26% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.7% ( -0.51) | 31.3% ( 0.5) |
| Cuba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.84% ( -1.07) | 57.15% ( 1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.87% ( -0.61) | 89.13% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Canada | Draw | Cuba |
| 2-0 @ 14.98% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.4)3-0 @ 11.88% ( 0.15)2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.65% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.12)5-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.1)6-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.95% Total : 78% | 1-1 @ 7.05% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.38% Total : 15.06% | 0-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.99% Total : 6.93% |
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