SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff City | Draw | Southampton |
32.8% ( 0.24) | 24% ( 0.07) | 43.19% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 60.47% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.24% ( -0.26) | 41.76% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.84% ( -0.26) | 64.16% ( 0.26) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.18% ( 0.02) | 24.81% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.6% ( 0.02) | 59.4% ( -0.03) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.43% ( -0.24) | 19.57% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.51% ( -0.39) | 51.48% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff City | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-1 @ 7.69% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 32.8% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.99% | 1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.9% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.41% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.16% Total : 43.19% |
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