SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.43%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
43.66% ( -3.63) | 22.78% ( 0.77) | 33.56% ( 2.87) |
| Both teams to score 65.32% ( -1.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.47% ( -2.53) | 35.53% ( 2.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.42% ( -2.85) | 57.57% ( 2.86) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.15% ( -2.3) | 16.85% ( 2.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.14% ( -4.27) | 46.86% ( 4.27) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.56% ( 0.36) | 21.44% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.55% ( 0.55) | 54.45% ( -0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( -0.15) 1-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.32)2-0 @ 5.73% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.53)3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.36)3-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.39)4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.45)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.32)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.31)4-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.45% Total : 43.66% | 1-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.6) 2-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.44)3-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.4% Total : 22.78% | 1-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.54) 0-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.73)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.61)1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.31)2-3 @ 3.49% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.33)1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.14)2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.64% Total : 33.56% |
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