Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 46.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
-0.06) 
0.07) 
