Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Parma had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.36) 
-0.12) 
