Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 43.56%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Cittadella had a probability of 27.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Cittadella win it was 0-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Parma would win this match.
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