The two teams played out a 1-1 draw when they locked horns at the home of Cagliari earlier this season, and we can see the same result in this match. The league table shows that there is hardly anything to choose between them, and we are expecting this semi-final to be incredibly tight across the two legs.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 46.93%. A win for Parma had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
0.44) 
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