Parma have conceded in five of their last six home games, giving Cagliari a chance heading into Saturday's meeting.
However, a win by a goal margin would suffice for Buffon and his teammates to advance to the decider against Bari or Sudtirol.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 0-1 (11.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
0.76) 
-0.99) 
