SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 63.57%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 17.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 3-1 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 1-2 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Central Coast Mariners in this match.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
63.57% ( -0.27) | 18.72% ( 0.11) | 17.71% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 62.6% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.49% ( -0.28) | 31.51% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.01% ( -0.33) | 52.99% ( 0.33) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.5% ( -0.14) | 9.49% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.15% ( -0.33) | 31.85% ( 0.33) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.17% ( -0.02) | 30.83% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.89% ( -0.02) | 67.1% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.41% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.91% Total : 63.57% | 1-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.93% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 18.72% | 1-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.44% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.4% Total : 17.71% |
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