SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.98%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.78% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.41%) and 1-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
54.98% ( 0.51) | 21.23% ( 0.03) | 23.78% ( -0.56) |
| Both teams to score 63.3% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.05% ( -0.79) | 34.95% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.07% ( -0.88) | 56.93% ( 0.88) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.19% ( -0.12) | 12.8% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.88% ( -0.23) | 39.11% ( 0.22) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.59% ( -0.86) | 27.4% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.11% ( -1.12) | 62.88% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.23)1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.38% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.27% Total : 54.98% | 1-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.34% Total : 21.23% | 1-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.71% Total : 23.78% |
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