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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Central Coast Mariners had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
40.44% ( 0.42) | 24.32% ( 0.32) | 35.24% ( -0.73) |
| Both teams to score 60.03% ( -1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.37% ( -1.62) | 42.63% ( 1.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( -1.64) | 65.03% ( 1.64) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.82% ( -0.5) | 21.17% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.95% ( -0.78) | 54.05% ( 0.79) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.16% ( -1.14) | 23.83% ( 1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.98% ( -1.67) | 58.01% ( 1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.44)2-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 40.44% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.16)0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.36)3-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 8.06% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.11)2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.98% Total : 35.24% |
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