Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.63%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
