SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 53.1%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.03%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
20.61% ( -0.25) | 26.28% ( 0.18) | 53.1% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 43.33% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.67% ( -0.84) | 59.32% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.28% ( -0.65) | 79.72% ( 0.65) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.91% ( -0.76) | 44.09% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.8% ( -0.63) | 80.19% ( 0.63) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.5% ( -0.32) | 22.5% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.94% ( -0.48) | 56.06% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.12% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 4.96% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.93% Total : 20.61% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.54% Total : 26.27% | 0-1 @ 14.79% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 11.03% ( 0.14)1-2 @ 9.04% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 5.49% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.49% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.69% Total : 53.09% |
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