SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.49%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 15.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.19%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro |
60.49% ( -0.22) | 24.26% ( 0.11) | 15.25% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 39.81% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.93% ( -0.19) | 59.07% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.48% ( -0.14) | 79.52% ( 0.14) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.59% ( -0.15) | 19.41% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.77% ( -0.25) | 51.23% ( 0.25) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.39% ( 0.05) | 50.61% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.93% ( 0.03) | 85.07% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 16.1% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 13.19% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.46% Total : 60.48% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 3.06% ( 0)Other @ 0.41% Total : 24.25% | 0-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 15.25% |
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