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Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 5
Oct 15, 2023 at 10.30pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 1
Cerro

Rodriguez (17'), Gigliotti (70')
Lozano (10'), Martinez (33')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Rodriguez (12')
Rodriguez (25'), Coronel (31'), Tizon (43'), Abero (51'), Fernandez (67')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Cerro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Racing 1-2 Nacional
Friday, October 6 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro 1-0 River Plate
Sunday, October 8 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.49%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 15.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.19%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.

Result
NacionalDrawCerro
60.49% (-0.21700000000001 -0.22) 24.26% (0.107 0.11) 15.25% (0.11 0.11)
Both teams to score 39.81% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.93% (-0.185 -0.19)59.07% (0.186 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.48% (-0.143 -0.14)79.52% (0.143 0.14)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.59% (-0.152 -0.15)19.41% (0.153 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.77% (-0.251 -0.25)51.23% (0.252 0.25)
Cerro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.39% (0.045000000000002 0.05)50.61% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.93% (0.032 0.03)85.07% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 60.48%
    Cerro 15.25%
    Draw 24.25%
NacionalDrawCerro
1-0 @ 16.1% (0.040000000000003 0.04)
2-0 @ 13.19% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-1 @ 8.99% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.21% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-1 @ 4.91% (-0.03 -0.03)
4-0 @ 2.96% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.01% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.67% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.97% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 60.48%
1-1 @ 10.96% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 9.82% (0.068999999999999 0.07)
2-2 @ 3.06% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.41%
Total : 24.25%
0-1 @ 6.69% (0.056 0.06)
1-2 @ 3.74% (0.018 0.02)
0-2 @ 2.28% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 15.25%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Racing 1-2 Nacional
Friday, October 6 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Plaza Colonia
Sunday, September 3 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro Largo 2-2 Nacional
Saturday, August 26 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Liverpool 0-0 Nacional
Sunday, August 20 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Boca Juniors 2-2 Nacional (4-2 pen.)
Thursday, August 10 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 0-0 Boca Juniors
Thursday, August 3 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Cerro 1-0 River Plate
Sunday, October 8 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Maldonado 2-1 Cerro
Monday, September 4 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro 1-2 Boston River
Sunday, August 27 at 2pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro 1-1 Penarol
Saturday, August 19 at 7.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Cerro 0-0 Plaza Colonia
Monday, July 24 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division
Last Game: Maldonado 1-2 Cerro
Monday, July 17 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division


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