SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 56.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 18.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
18.16% ( 0.63) | 25.04% ( 0.35) | 56.8% ( -0.98) |
| Both teams to score 43% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.2% ( -0.43) | 57.8% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.47% ( -0.34) | 78.53% ( 0.34) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.98% ( 0.52) | 46.02% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.27% ( 0.4) | 81.73% ( -0.4) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.65% ( -0.55) | 20.35% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.25% ( -0.89) | 52.75% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 7.27% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 4.49% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.49% Total : 18.16% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.53% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 14.9% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 11.86% ( -0.22)1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 6.3% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 2.51% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 56.78% |
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