Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Cruz Azul	Draw	Toluca
50.61% ( -0.31)	23.83% ( 0.14)	25.56% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 56.14% (

-0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.72% (

-0.5)

45.28% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.38% (

-0.48)

67.62% (

0.48)

Cruz Azul Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.06% (

-0.3)

17.94% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.23% (

-0.53)

48.76% (

0.53)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.41% (

-0.14)

31.58% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.01% (

-0.16)

67.98% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Cruz Azul 50.61%

Toluca 25.56%

Draw 23.83%

Cruz Azul	Draw	Toluca
1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.52% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.79% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.59% Total : 50.61%	1-1 @ 11.22% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.83%	0-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 25.56%