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Liga MX | Gameweek 3
Jul 18, 2024 at 4am UK
Estadio Nemesio Diez

Toluca
3 - 0
Mazatlan

Paulinho (15'), Garcia (45'), Vega (77')
Ruiz (48'), Araujo (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Rubio (1'), Diaz (65')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Juarez
Sunday, July 14 at 2.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-2 Atletico San Luis
Saturday, July 13 at 4am in Liga MX

We said: Toluca 2-1 Mazatlan

Both heading into the meeting with renewed confidence from their weekend results, we anticipate an entertaining encounter on Thursday and give a slight edge to the hosts, who hold more quality in their ranks. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 69.38%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Mazatlan had a probability of 12.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 1-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.31%), while for a Mazatlan win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.

Result
TolucaDrawMazatlan
69.38% (1.121 1.12) 17.77% (-0.121 -0.12) 12.85% (-0.996 -1)
Both teams to score 53.38% (-2.591 -2.59)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.45% (-1.901 -1.9)37.55% (1.906 1.91)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.22% (-2.071 -2.07)59.78% (2.076 2.08)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.23% (-0.236 -0.24)9.77% (0.241 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.51% (-0.56 -0.56)32.49% (0.567 0.57)
Mazatlan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.16% (-2.707 -2.71)40.84% (2.712 2.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.58% (-2.517 -2.52)77.42% (2.522 2.52)
Score Analysis
    Toluca 69.38%
    Mazatlan 12.85%
    Draw 17.77%
TolucaDrawMazatlan
2-0 @ 10.79% (0.75 0.75)
2-1 @ 9.66% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-0 @ 9.28% (0.739 0.74)
3-0 @ 8.37% (0.5 0.5)
3-1 @ 7.49% (-0.093 -0.09)
4-0 @ 4.87% (0.241 0.24)
4-1 @ 4.36% (-0.101 -0.1)
3-2 @ 3.36% (-0.302 -0.3)
5-0 @ 2.26% (0.09 0.09)
5-1 @ 2.03% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.95% (-0.198 -0.2)
5-2 @ 0.91% (-0.104 -0.1)
Other @ 4.05%
Total : 69.38%
1-1 @ 8.31% (0.075000000000001 0.08)
2-2 @ 4.33% (-0.339 -0.34)
0-0 @ 3.99% (0.357 0.36)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.174 -0.17)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 17.77%
1-2 @ 3.72% (-0.248 -0.25)
0-1 @ 3.57% (0.07 0.07)
0-2 @ 1.6% (-0.088 -0.09)
2-3 @ 1.29% (-0.208 -0.21)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.166 -0.17)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 12.85%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Juarez
Sunday, July 14 at 2.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 0-0 Toluca
Sunday, July 7 at 2am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 0-0 Guadalajara
Sunday, May 12 at 3.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 1-0 Toluca
Thursday, May 9 at 2.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul
Sunday, April 28 at 2am in Liga MX
Last Game: Atletico San Luis 1-5 Toluca
Saturday, April 20 at 4am in Liga MX
Last Game: Mazatlan 2-2 Atletico San Luis
Saturday, July 13 at 4am in Liga MX
Last Game: Cruz Azul 1-0 Mazatlan
Sunday, July 7 at 4am in Liga MX
Last Game: Pachuca 1-1 Mazatlan
Sunday, April 28 at 2.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Mazatlan 0-2 Juarez
Saturday, April 20 at 2am in Liga MX
Last Game: Queretaro 0-2 Mazatlan
Saturday, April 13 at 2.06am in Liga MX
Last Game: Mazatlan 0-4 Pumas
Saturday, April 6 at 2am in Liga MX


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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