Toluca
1 - 4
Cruz Azul

Sanvezzo (20')
Rodriguez (5'), Baeza (40'), Garcia (53')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Escobar (7'), Rodriguez (64'), Gimenez (79' pen., 82')
Lira (13'), Rodriguez (24'), Escobar (57'), Mayorga (75')

Data Analysis

Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Cruz Azul.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruz Azul would win this match.

Result
Toluca	Draw	Cruz Azul
28.47%	27.22%	44.31%

Both teams to score 47.94%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.94%

57.06%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.05%

77.94%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.45%

35.55%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.68%

72.31%

Cruz Azul Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.39%

25.61%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.51%

60.49%

Score Analysis

Toluca 28.47%

Cruz Azul 44.31%

Draw 27.21%

Toluca	Draw	Cruz Azul
1-0 @ 9.42% 2-1 @ 6.63% 2-0 @ 4.87% 3-1 @ 2.29% 3-0 @ 1.68% 3-2 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.03% Total : 28.47%	1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 9.1% 2-2 @ 4.52% Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.21%	0-1 @ 12.4% 1-2 @ 8.74% 0-2 @ 8.45% 1-3 @ 3.97% 0-3 @ 3.84% 2-3 @ 2.05% 1-4 @ 1.35% 0-4 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.22% Total : 44.31%