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Liga MX | Gameweek 4
Jul 21, 2024 at 4.05am UK
Estadio Azteca

Cruz Azul
1 - 1
Toluca

Sepulveda (90')
Rodriguez (12'), Giakoumakis (55')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Araujo (38')
Gallardo (31'), Ruiz (42')
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Cruz Azul and Toluca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cruz Azul 3-0 Tijuana
Wednesday, July 17 at 4.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 3-0 Mazatlan
Thursday, July 18 at 4am in Liga MX

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
Cruz AzulDrawToluca
50.61% (-0.308 -0.31) 23.83% (0.144 0.14) 25.56% (0.164 0.16)
Both teams to score 56.14% (-0.321 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.72% (-0.498 -0.5)45.28% (0.498 0.5)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.38% (-0.479 -0.48)67.62% (0.479 0.48)
Cruz Azul Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.06% (-0.304 -0.3)17.94% (0.305 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.23% (-0.527 -0.53)48.76% (0.527 0.53)
Toluca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.41% (-0.137 -0.14)31.58% (0.138 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.01% (-0.157 -0.16)67.98% (0.157 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Cruz Azul 50.61%
    Toluca 25.56%
    Draw 23.83%
Cruz AzulDrawToluca
1-0 @ 9.74% (0.112 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.64% (-0.020000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 8.36% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.52% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-0 @ 4.79% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.18% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-1 @ 2.37% (-0.053 -0.05)
4-0 @ 2.06% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.37% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 3.59%
Total : 50.61%
1-1 @ 11.22% (0.09 0.09)
0-0 @ 5.67% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 5.55% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.83%
0-1 @ 6.53% (0.114 0.11)
1-2 @ 6.47% (0.026 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.76% (0.052 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.48% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.45% (0.015 0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 25.56%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Cruz Azul 3-0 Tijuana
Wednesday, July 17 at 4.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Monterrey 0-4 Cruz Azul
Sunday, July 14 at 4.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Cruz Azul 1-0 Mazatlan
Sunday, July 7 at 4am in Liga MX
Last Game: America 1-0 Cruz Azul
Monday, May 27 at 2am in Liga MX
Last Game: Cruz Azul 1-1 America
Friday, May 24 at 3am in Liga MX
Last Game: Cruz Azul 1-2 Monterrey
Monday, May 20 at 1am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 3-0 Mazatlan
Thursday, July 18 at 4am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 3-2 Juarez
Sunday, July 14 at 2.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 0-0 Toluca
Sunday, July 7 at 2am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 0-0 Guadalajara
Sunday, May 12 at 3.10am in Liga MX
Last Game: Guadalajara 1-0 Toluca
Thursday, May 9 at 2.05am in Liga MX
Last Game: Toluca 0-1 Cruz Azul
Sunday, April 28 at 2am in Liga MX


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