Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 39.4%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.04) 
