Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 50.39%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 25.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 0-1 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.17) 
