SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.5%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.84%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Venezuela |
47.5% ( 0.08) | 29.22% ( -0.01) | 23.28% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 39.16% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.75% ( -0) | 66.25% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.24% ( -0) | 84.75% ( 0) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.7% ( 0.04) | 28.29% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.98% ( 0.05) | 64.02% ( -0.06) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.61% ( -0.07) | 45.38% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.76% ( -0.06) | 81.24% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Venezuela |
| 1-0 @ 16.21% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.31% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.4% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.34% 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0)Other @ 1.48% Total : 47.49% | 0-0 @ 12.84% 1-1 @ 12.8% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0)Other @ 0.38% Total : 29.21% | 0-1 @ 10.14% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.68% Total : 23.27% |
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