Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.03%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
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