SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Austria | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Sweden | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Estonia | 8 | -20 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Belgium had a probability of 27.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Belgium win was 0-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Belgium |
46.78% ( 0.22) | 25.91% ( 0.12) | 27.3% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 51.02% ( -0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.28% ( -0.68) | 52.72% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.64% ( -0.58) | 74.36% ( 0.59) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.48% ( -0.19) | 22.52% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.91% ( -0.28) | 56.09% ( 0.28) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.85% ( -0.63) | 34.15% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.16% ( -0.68) | 70.85% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| England | Draw | Belgium |
| 1-0 @ 11.46% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.13% Total : 46.78% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.69% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.91% | 0-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.26% Total : 27.3% |
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