SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 7 | 13 | 17 |
| 2 | Austria | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Sweden | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 6 | -8 | 4 |
| 5 | Estonia | 6 | -16 | 1 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 6 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Serbia | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 6 | -7 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Serbia win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgium | Draw | Serbia |
49.98% ( -1.02) | 23.72% ( 0.41) | 26.29% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 57.18% ( -0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.77% ( -1.38) | 44.22% ( 1.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.4% ( -1.35) | 66.6% ( 1.35) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.22% ( -0.9) | 17.78% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.51% ( -1.57) | 48.49% ( 1.57) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.54% ( -0.27) | 30.45% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.34% ( -0.32) | 66.66% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgium | Draw | Serbia |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.53% ( -0.2)3-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.16)4-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.68% Total : 49.98% | 1-1 @ 11.11% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.72% | 1-2 @ 6.61% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.33)0-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.17)1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.29% |
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