SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 5 | -10 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 77.13%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Australia had a probability of 8.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.46%) and 1-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for an Australia win it was 0-1 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that England would win this match.
| Result | ||
| England | Draw | Australia |
77.13% ( 0.16) | 14.57% ( -0.08) | 8.3% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 47.76% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.09% ( 0.1) | 35.91% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42% ( 0.1) | 58% ( -0.1) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.37% ( 0.06) | 7.63% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.75% ( 0.14) | 27.25% ( -0.14) |
| Australia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.71% ( -0.12) | 48.29% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.56% ( -0.09) | 83.44% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| England | Draw | Australia |
| 2-0 @ 12.19% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 9.48% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.88% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.62% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.73% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.78% 6-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.84% Total : 77.12% | 1-1 @ 6.9% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.76% Total : 14.57% | 0-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 8.3% |
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