SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Guinea had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 30.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.82%) and 2-1 (7.24%). The likeliest Guinea win was 0-1 (12.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Guinea |
38.56% ( -1) | 30.71% ( 0.43) | 30.73% ( 0.57) |
| Both teams to score 39.8% ( -0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.39% ( -1.13) | 67.61% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.32% ( -0.76) | 85.68% ( 0.76) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.9% ( -1.23) | 34.1% ( 1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.21% ( -1.34) | 70.79% ( 1.34) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.39% ( -0.2) | 39.61% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.71% ( -0.19) | 76.29% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 14.53% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.2)2-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.23)3-0 @ 2.8% ( -0.17)3-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.37% Total : 38.56% | 0-0 @ 13.5% ( 0.55) 1-1 @ 13.45% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.4% Total : 30.7% | 0-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.45% Total : 30.72% |
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