SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 33.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tanzania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Tanzania |
33.91% ( -1.73) | 28.38% ( -0.72) | 37.71% ( 2.44) |
| Both teams to score 46.53% ( 1.93) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.25% ( 2.4) | 59.75% ( -2.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.95% ( 1.8) | 80.05% ( -1.81) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( 0.09) | 33% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.42% ( 0.11) | 69.58% ( -0.11) |
| Tanzania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.44% ( 2.78) | 30.56% ( -2.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.21% ( 3.17) | 66.79% ( -3.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Tanzania |
| 1-0 @ 11.17% ( -1.03) 2-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.55)3-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.9% | 1-1 @ 13.25% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.95)2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.29)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.38% | 0-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 7.86% ( 0.5)0-2 @ 7.09% ( 0.43)1-3 @ 3.11% ( 0.41)0-3 @ 2.8% ( 0.36)2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.23)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.26% Total : 37.7% |
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