Only one of the last 12 league matches between Fiorentina and Milan have ended in a draw, but that could be the outcome this weekend. The Viola will come up just shy of recording three straight home wins over the Rossoneri for a first time since the 1970s, but even one point would be welcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 30.55% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
45.47% ( 0.01)	23.98% ( 0)	30.55% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 59.49% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.41% (

-0.01)

42.59% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35% (

-0.01)

64.99% (

0.01)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.06%

18.94% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.55%

50.45% (

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.39% (

-0.01)

26.61% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.16% (

-0.01)

61.84% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 45.47%

AC Milan 30.55%

Draw 23.98%

Fiorentina	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.39% ( 0) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.12% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.39% 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.34% Total : 45.47%	1-1 @ 11.1% 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.04% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.98%	1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.7% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.55%