SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.75%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Fiorentina |
44.75% ( 0.06) | 25.78% ( -0.02) | 29.46% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 52.84% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.98% ( 0.05) | 51.02% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.12% ( 0.04) | 72.88% ( -0.05) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.26% ( 0.05) | 22.74% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.59% ( 0.07) | 56.41% ( -0.08) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.39% ( -0.01) | 31.61% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.98% ( -0.01) | 68.02% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.58% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 44.75% | 1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.23% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.78% | 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 29.46% |
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