SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 31.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | AC Milan |
44% ( -1.35) | 24.89% ( 0.42) | 31.11% ( 0.92) |
| Both teams to score 56.63% ( -0.95) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.53% ( -1.46) | 46.47% ( 1.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.25% ( -1.39) | 68.75% ( 1.38) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( -1.2) | 21.16% ( 1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.97% ( -1.89) | 54.02% ( 1.89) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.83% ( -0.12) | 28.17% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.14% ( -0.14) | 63.86% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fiorentina | Draw | AC Milan |
| 1-0 @ 9.26% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.25)3-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.59% Total : 44% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 7.55% ( 0.43) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.76% Total : 31.11% |
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