With their Scudetto hopes already diminishing by the week, Milan must pick up points to keep pressure on Serie A's top two. The Rossoneri's win-rate drops some 20% without either Rafael Leao or Olivier Giroud on the pitch, but Fiorentina are also lacking a clinical finisher and could be picked off on the break. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 43.48%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Fiorentina
43.48%	25.49% ( -0)	31.02% ( 0)

Both teams to score 54.57% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.86% (

49.14% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.79% (

71.21% (

-0)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.47% (

22.53% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.89% (

56.1%

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.44% (

29.56% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.41% (

65.58% (

-0)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 43.48%

Fiorentina 31.02%

Draw 25.49%

AC Milan	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.93% 2-1 @ 9.01% 2-0 @ 7.4% 3-1 @ 4.48% 3-0 @ 3.67% 3-2 @ 2.73% 4-1 @ 1.67% 4-0 @ 1.37% 4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.21% Total : 43.48%	1-1 @ 12.09% 0-0 @ 6.66% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.49% 3-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.49%	0-1 @ 8.12% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.95% 1-3 @ 3% 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.01% 1-4 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.44% Total : 31.02%