Derby's promotion bid may have received a setback on Monday, but we think that the Rams will return to winning ways against a Fleetwood side that have lost three of their last four home games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.85%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 19.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.13%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 1-0 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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